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Analysis of the driving factors for the growth of China's elevator industry


The growth of commercial real estate in China is mainly driven by the development of commercial housing market, office building and commercial business housing market. In terms of the commercial housing market, with the real estate regulation and control started in the second half of 2010, the growth rate of the market slowed down, but the overall idea of macro regulation and control is to curb the speculative demand for commercial housing in the first and second tier cities, while the housing improvement demand and the development of the commercial housing market in the third and fourth tier cities are not within the scope of regulation and control. Therefore, after the regulation and control, the market presents a more rational and stable growth trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2011 and 2012, the sales area of domestic commercial housing was 1.094 billion square meters and 1.113 billion square meters, up 4.39% and 1.74% from the previous year, respectively. The trend of market growth was not affected by macroeconomic regulation.
In terms of office buildings and commercial buildings, the market has shown a sustained and rapid growth trend in recent years.
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the completed investment in office buildings and commercial and business buildings in China was 181.069 billion yuan in 2003. By 2012, the completed investment had reached 1267.9 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.14%.
② Urban infrastructure construction
The steady growth of the macro economy has promoted the continuous improvement of China's urbanization rate. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's urbanization rate in 2012 was 52.57%, an increase of 13.48 percentage points over 2002, and the average annual urbanization rate increased by 1.35%. According to the overall goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way, China's urbanization rate will reach 60% by 2020.

The continuous improvement of urbanization rate has led to the improvement of the construction scale of public infrastructure such as airports, railway stations, hospitals and gymnasiums in China. In terms of airport construction, by the end of 2012, China had 183 certified transport airports. According to the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Civil Aviation in China, the number of civil airports nationwide will exceed 230 by 2015; In terms of railway station construction, benefiting from the impact of increased investment in railway construction, by the end of 2012, there were more than 1900 passenger railway stations in China; In terms of hospital construction, according to the Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health and Family Planning in China in 2012, the number of public hospitals in China was 14170 in 2012, including 1624 tertiary hospitals with higher requirements for elevator personalized functions; In terms of stadium construction, by the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan", China has more than 1 million stadiums and gymnasiums of all kinds. According to the "12th Five-Year Plan" for the development of sports undertakings, by 2015, the number of stadiums and gymnasiums of all kinds will reach more than 1.2 million.
③ Construction of affordable housing
In recent years, the construction of affordable housing has grown rapidly with the support of national policies. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, 4.32 million affordable housing units were basically completed in China in 2011, 10.43 million units were newly constructed, 7.81 million units were newly constructed and 6.01 million units were completed in 2012. According to the national goal of building 36 million indemnificatory housing during the 12th Five-Year Plan, the demand for elevators in the construction of indemnificatory housing will reach 500000 to 600000 sets in the future (data source: China Merchants Securities Research Institute).
④ Old elevator renewal and old building reconstruction
In the field of old elevator renewal, the elevator still operates in violation of regulations after the specified service life, which will bring major hidden dangers in elevator safety. According to the provisions of the Regulations on Safety Supervision of Special Equipment promulgated by the State Council, "if special equipment has serious potential accidents, has no value for modification or maintenance, or exceeds the service life specified in the safety technical specifications, the unit using special equipment shall scrap it in time". According to the data of the China Elevator Association, the National Business Yearbook of the Elevator Industry and the industry regulations on the mandatory scrapping of elevators for 15 years, the number of elevators updated in China in 2013-2015 will be 30200, 32500 and 37500 respectively.
In the field of old building renovation, with the improvement of social and economic level and the aging of the population, the need to install elevators in existing buildings has attracted the attention of the government. The Ministry of Construction has listed special projects in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" key science and technology support projects to study the transformation of existing buildings, especially the comprehensive research on policies, investment, technology, standards, transformation plans, requirements, approval procedures and other aspects of how to set up a special project for the transformation of existing buildings across the country. At present, the installation of elevators in old buildings has been piloted in Beijing and other places and will gradually be popularized nationwide. According to the prediction of China Merchants Securities Research Institute, more than 200000 existing buildings in Shanghai alone need to be installed with elevators, while about 180000 buildings in Guangdong Province need to be installed with elevators.

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